**EXCLUSIVE** Democrats Turnout Model
08 Sep **EXCLUSIVE** Democrats Turnout Model
It’s been almost two weeks since we received an exclusive package of documents directly from Guccifer 2, the hacker that picked the DCCC clean of documents.
There’s been a lot to go through and we’ve revealed some of the behind the scenes documents that outline how DCCC plays in party primaries in the Sunshine State.
…But buried deep in the documents of Florida Congressional delegation co-chairman and Senior Democratic whip Alcee Hastings (FL-20) was a complete county-by-county, city-by-city, searchable turnout model for the Democrats this fall!
You won’t read about this on other blogs Florida!
The first document outlined their action plan. One of the most interesting comments on the document relates to the DCCC’s strategy of recruiting a “rich dude self funder” in several races. THE EXCLUSIVE DOCUMENT highlights their strategies in battleground seats in multiple states, including PA, TX, VA, and numerous seats in FL: exclusive-hellofla-south-action-items-comined
Now for the good stuff!
I came across what I can only call The Targeting Spreadsheets. It looks like a jumble of useless data to the untrained eye, and even press would likely miss the significance of these…But insiders like our team at HelloFLA know the DCCC likely poured Millions of dollars into creating these customized targeting plans.
The documents contain the Democrats targeting plans in several battleground states, including the Early Voting Targeting plans in Florida, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, and Virginia, broken down by city/district/county/media market: target-counts-2016-02-09
These “Million Dollar Documents” outline the Democrats’ resource distribution for the election this November are based on math and population patters and are irreplaceable…and you can only find them here on HelloFLA!
One document even has a handy-dandy pivot table that allows you to easily sort the Democrat’s targeting priorities throughout Florida by district and city! For example, in St. Petersburg, home of Peter Schorsh and saintpetersblog.com, lists a target base of 50469 in St. Petersburg and 1190 in St. Pete Beach. Of those in St. Pete Beach, 633 will be getting persuasion pieces and 376 are hardcore Democrats identified for turnout:
|City||BASE||NO TARGET||PERSUASION||TURNOUT||Grand Total|
|St Pete Beach||1190||4403||1158||495||7246|
table source: fl-target-counts
…and it goes on and on throughout the state! Taken as a whole, these documents are a roadmap for where the Democrats plan on deploying their resources in battleground states this fall!
So where is the key for these folks to help you drill down?
Well right here of course! The fl-and-va-new-dist-model-report-distro-data drills down and segregates the target count sheet into easily repeatable target lists like: Black, 55-64, 35-44, White, AAPI, 65+, 3/4 Voter, Hispanic, New Voter, 4/4 Voter, Native, 2014 Non-Voter, Ind/Other, 2/4 Voter, Democratic, etc. etc. etc.
Additionally, there is some more base data used to calculate these numbers here, including 2012 turnout models for Early Voting in Florida. fl-new-florida-ptv-number
We also have some documents from the 23rd District in Texas (tx-23-table) and the 10th District in Virginia (va-10-scores-by-precinct) for those folks who are interested…